\Predicting what would happen in 2022 was a unique challenge. It followed enormous changes in the last few years, and this rapid change made predictions difficult. We made seven predictions for 2022, and we are grading ourselves at 3.5, or about half right. We are basically as good at predicting as a coin flip.
We predicted that the vaccine mandates and mask requirements would be phased out. The majority of the vaccine mandates and mask requirements were phased out as the percentage of the population increases, that is either vaccinated or has natural immunity because they recovered from COVID-19. We are taking full credit for this prediction.
We predicted that the single-family residence permits would increase this year. We expected several developments that were in the planning stage to start development. This did not happen, and single-family residence permits decreased by a hundred from 1590 to 1490. We are getting no credit for this prediction.
We predicted that we would get a club store or high-end grocery store. We predicted that this past year a Costco, Whole Foods, Fresh Market, or Trader Joe’s would announce that they would open in Hernando County. This type of prediction is a long shot, and we have not been successful with this type of prediction over the years. However, we at the Hernando Sun would appreciate one of these stores opening in Hernando, so we predict it. We are taking no credit for this prediction.
The last few years have been exceptionally wet. Last year was slightly less wet than the year before, and we predicted that the trend would continue. The last four years’ rainfall, according to SWFWMD, was 64.90 inches in 2019, 57.01 inches in 2020, 47.60 inches in 2021, and 55.88 inches in 2022. There had been a three-year decline in rainfall, but 2022 bucked the trend. We get no credit for this prediction.
The Hernando County government placed a half-cent sales tax referendum on the 2022 ballot. Voters rejected the half-cent sales tax. We predicted that the county would either choose not to pursue the half-cent sales tax or that the voters would not pass the referendum. We predicted that the sales tax rate would stay at 6.5%. This is what happened, and we are taking full credit for the prediction.
The election of 2022 saw many first-time candidates throw their hats into the ring. We predicted at least three new elected officials in the 2022 election. This was the case with a number of new faces being elected to different boards throughout the county. We are taking full credit for this prediction.
Supply chain issues were a major problem in 2021, as companies forwent warehousing goods to attempt to be more efficient and environmentally friendly. Any hiccup in the production of goods then leads to shortages for the consumers. We expected periodic shortages to continue in 2022. There were shortages in 2022, but it was less pronounced than in 2021. We are taking half credit for this prediction.
