Falcon 9 Failure Halts SpaceX, NASA, and Other Missions

A few weeks can seem like an eternity when you are behind the curve on a hectic launch schedule. Such is the case for SpaceX, who hoped to shatter Cape Canaveral launch records this year with as many as 140 launches from the Space Coast. The delay stems not from production issues nor technical issues in a direct sense but from regulatory issues.

On July 11th, a SpaceX Falcon 9 booster launching from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California experienced an “in-flight anomaly” when a second-stage engine failed to reignite once in orbit. The failure left the payload of 20 Starlink satellites in an orbit that was too low, resulting in the satellites falling back into the atmosphere and burning up.

SpaceX engineers quickly determined that the failure was due to a leaking liquid oxygen tank in the second stage. Onboard cameras showed ice quickly building up on the second-stage tanks as well as its single Merlin vacuum engine, a prime indication of a leak. With over 340 successful Falcon 9 launches prior to the failure, the company seemed to treat the failure with appropriate concern but also as a “one-off,” given the booster’s proven track record. Even so, SpaceX prudently began an internal investigation as to the cause of the leak.

However, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) weighed in a bit heavier on the regulatory side. The FAA requires a “launch license” for all companies that launch payloads to space and/or plan for their vehicles to reenter Earth’s atmosphere. As per their standard procedure, the FAA promptly began its own safety investigation, which, by default, grounded Space X’s Falcon 9 boosters, meaning SpaceX’s Falcon 9 launch schedule is at a standstill.

SpaceX filed an appeal last week to allow uncrewed launches to continue during the FAA’s investigation. As of this writing, the FAA has not ruled on the appeal but could do so any day now. SpaceX filed its appeal because the failure presented no public safety concerns due to the altitude at which the second stage operates. During a typical launch, the Falcon 9 first stage will return to Earth and land either on a designated landing pad or on a drone ship. The second stage, however, always burns up in the atmosphere once it is expended.

Implications for NASA
The grounding of the Falcon 9 booster is problematic for SpaceX and the US Space program in general. The Falcon 9 booster, with a Crew Dragon or Cargo Dragon payload module on top, sends both crews and supplies to the International Space Station. As the Crew Dragon is the only vehicle currently rated to allow sending US crews to space, and the Crew Dragon depends on the Falcon 9 booster, America has no way to send astronauts to the ISS or anywhere else while the booster is grounded. NASA is set to send its ninth rotational crew mission, known as “Crew 9,” to the ISS for six months in August. That launch date is now in jeopardy, which, by default, will leave Crew 8 in orbit a bit longer than planned.

If that weren’t enough, the Boeing Starliner, which would have become America’s second crew-rated vehicle, remains parked at the ISS due to problems encountered during Starliner’s first human-crewed test flight. Problems with helium leaks and overheating thrusters on the Starliner have left US astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams left indefinitely on the space station. Starliner launched on what was to have been a nine-day mission on June 5th, with the earliest possible return date now sometime in August. Unlike the SpaceX Crew Dragon, the Starliner is dependent on the ULA Atlas V booster, which is already flight-certified.

The current situation boils down to this: SpaceX has a flight-certified crew module, but now a grounded booster and ULA has a flight-certified booster but a problematic crew module….and they are not interchangeable.

Other Launches Will Likely Be Delayed
The US government is not the only SpaceX customer affected by the grounding. Polaris Dawn, a unique private space mission funded by billionaire Jared Isaacman, was set to take an all-private crew of four on an experimental flight in late July. The mission would have seen a Falcon 9 booster and a modified Crew Dragon take four private citizens to an orbit higher than any person has experienced since the Apollo missions. While in that orbit, the Polaris Dawn crew would be testing newly designed space suits and performing the first-ever spacewalk by a civilian crew. Additionally, for the first time, the entire Crew Dragon module would be depressurized before the hatch opening instead of the airlock system used when the Crew Dragon docks with the ISS.

Of course, there are the commercial launch delays experienced by SpaceX’s own companies. The Falcon 9 has become the workhorse of SpaceX’s subsidiary, Starlink. Starlink is in the process of launching thousands of new-generation satellites into orbit to create a global internet network. Before the Falcon 9 grounding, Space X’s launch cadence was as high as three weekly launches. With dozens of Starlink missions remaining on the company’s launch calendar, each day’s delay creates untold headaches for mission schedulers.

The Commercial Crew Program
The “fix” for the country’s current launch bind is, ironically, the program that gave birth to both the Crew Dragon and Starliner projects. In 2014, NASA awarded SpaceX and Boeing contracts to develop a reliable transportation system to get crews to and from space. The objective was not to “pick one” but to develop redundant yet dissimilar systems to alleviate the same situation we now find ourselves in.

SpaceX, with a two-billion-dollar contract, was the first to create a flight-certified crew module in 2020 and has successfully been flying crews to and from the ISS since then. Boeing, awarded a four-billion-dollar contract, has been quite a bit slower in the development of Starliner. Starliner’s first two test flights were uncrewed and were objective failures due to hardware and software issues. The third flight, a crewed flight launched in June, was to be a certification flight for the Starliner. That certification is now unlikely, given the problems that have delayed the spacecraft’s return.

When Starliner (or a successor) is finally flight-certified, the Commercial Crew Program will have achieved a degree of redundancy that should prevent the country’s space program from being in this situation again. The current crisis highlights the inherent complexities and interdependencies of the new generation of space flight. As SpaceX awaits a decision on their appeal, the broader space community remains in a state of watchful anticipation. This pause serves as a reminder of the delicate balance between innovation, safety, and regulatory oversight. In the evolving aerospace landscape, resilience and adaptability remain the keys to overcoming such challenges and achieving the goals set forth by commercial and governmental space entities.